Bibliography & Datasets

Primary Sources

A curated collection of the empirical research, scaling projections, and infrastructure reports used to construct the timeline.

01

Forecasting, Benchmarks & Scaling Laws

epoch.ai
Epoch AI: Training Compute Trends
Historical analysis of training compute growth (4-5x/year) and algorithmic progress.
metr.org
METR: Autonomous Task Horizons
Evaluations of agentic capabilities and time-horizon projections for autonomous task completion.
stanford.edu
2025 AI Index Report
Comprehensive data on R&D costs, model doubling times, and global hardware distribution.
80000hours.org
Review of Expert Forecasts
Aggregated expert elicitation data on AGI arrival times and safety timelines.
swebench.com
SWE-bench Leaderboard
Real-time tracking of LLM performance on real-world GitHub software engineering issues.
metaculus.com
Metaculus: Weakly General AI
Aggregate community forecasting on the arrival of the first general AI systems.
02

Infrastructure, Energy & Hardware

iea.org
IEA: Energy Demand from AI
Official International Energy Agency projections on data center electricity consumption through 2026.
belfercenter.org
AI, Data Centers & The US Grid
Analysis of grid interconnection bottlenecks and the "19 GW Gap."
nvidia.com
NVIDIA Blackwell Platform Specs
Official architecture specifications for GB200 and roadmap for Rubin/Ultra.
fervoenergy.com
Fervo Geothermal Updates
Reports on 150MW+ enhanced geothermal projects for data center power.
03

Technical Research & Architecture

arxiv.org
Toolformer / Reasoning Papers
Foundational papers on tool-use and "System 2" reasoning chains in LLMs.
aclanthology.org
Post-Transformer Architectures
Research on State Space Models (Mamba) and linear-scaling context efficiency.
darpa.mil
DARPA expMath Program
Defense research initiatives on automated theorem proving and formal verification.
research.google
Nested Learning Paradigms
Google Research on continual learning and long-term memory consolidation.
04

Geopolitics, Regulation & Law

europa.eu
The EU AI Act
Official documentation for the AI Act, including GPAI compliance timelines (Aug 2026).
bis.gov
US Dept of Commerce (BIS)
Revisions to semiconductor export controls and license review policies.
reuters.com
Reuters Technology Wire
Reporting on US-China trade curbs, copyright litigation, and regulatory enforcement.
deloitte.com
Deloitte TMT Predictions
Industry forecasts on chip markets, sovereign AI clouds, and enterprise adoption.